The historic predictive value of Canadian orthopedic surgery residents' orthopedic in-training examination scores on their success on the RCPSC certification examination.

BACKGROUND Positive correlation between the orthopedic in-training examination (OITE) and success in the American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery examination has been reported. Canadian training programs in internal medicine, anesthesiology and urology have found a positive correlation between in-training examination scores and performance on the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada (RCPSC) certification examination. We sought to determine the potential predictive value of the OITE scores of Canadian orthopedic surgery residents on their success on their RCPSC examinations. METHODS A total of 118 Canadian orthopedic surgery residents had their annual OITE scores during their 5 years of training matched to the RCPSC examination oral and multiple-choice questions and to overall examination pass/fail scores. We calculated Pearson correlations between the in-training examination for each postgraduate year and the certification oral and multiple-choice questions and pass/fail marks. RESULTS There was a predictive association between the OITE and success on the RCPSC examination. The association was strongest between the OITE and the written multiple-choice examination and weakest between the OITE and the overall examination pass/fail marks. CONCLUSION Overall, the OITE was able to provide useful feedback to Canadian orthopedic surgery residents and their training programs in preparing them for their RCPSC examinations. However, when these data were collected, truly normative data based on a Canadian sample were not available. Further study is warranted based on a more refined analysis of the OITE, which is now being produced and includes normative percentile data based on Canadian residents.